MN-Sen: Ventura To Announce Decision On Larry King Tonight

by Josh Orton, Mon Jul 14, 2008 at 12:52:17 PM EST

Well, after a few days of speculation, it sounds like we'll have an answer tonight:

Former Minnesota Governor and professional wrestler Jesse Ventura is expected to announce Monday night on CNN's Larry King Live whether he'll run for his state's U.S. Senate seat. Ventura's deadline to file to run for the senate is Tuesday.
...
Ventura ran for governor of Minnesota as an Independent in 1998, winning a three way race. Coleman was the Republican candidate in that race, losing to Ventura by about 50,000 votes. After what many people in Minnesota describe as a difficult four years in office, Ventura decided not to run for re-election.

Larry King starts at 9PM Eastern time on CNN.

How would the race change? Let's look at the last SUSA poll that looked at both the 2-way and hypothetical 3-way race with Ventura included (6/10-13, 609RVs):

Candidate
Franken40
Coleman52
Including Ventura:
Franken31
Coleman41
Ventura23

Don't count Franken out yet. Sorting through the crosstabs, it looks like Ventura pulls a bunch of independent men from Coleman. If Obama's voter registration efforts work they way they should, a bunch of new Dems will bring us back in the running...

Update [2008-7-14 12:55:43 by Josh Orton]: I should add that I'm not sure Ventura would go on Larry King to announce that he's not running - that could be done with a quick statement. I bet he's in.

Update [2008-7-14 13:34:25 by Josh Orton]: Down in the comments, Dracomicron points out a more recent Rass poll with the hypothetical 3-way:

...Rasmussen says that, in a 2-way race, it's currently 48% Coleman to 45% Franken, which seems odd, considering that Franken was down by 12% in that SUSA you mentioned... though Franken's new ad might have done him some good, I suppose.

In the three way race, with 39% Coleman, 32% Franken and 24% Ventura according to Rasmussen, I predict the only one going downwards is Coleman, because Ventura will beat on him mercilessly for both political dislike of incumbancy and personal dislike of Coleman (who insulted him at the '98 State Fair). I think Franken will hold onto his Democrats.




Tags: MN-Sen, Jesse Ventura, Al Franken (all tags)

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Re: MN-Sen: Venture To Announce (none / 0)

I very much want Franken to win, but I am worried what his life as a comic will do.

people are so damn uptight, like his whole playboy article that came back to haunt him.

thank goodness for all the new Democrats Obama will add in MN.


Dream for tomorrow but fight for it today.
by TruthMatters on Mon Jul 14, 2008 at 12:47:31 PM EST

Re: MN-Sen: Ventura To Announce (none / 0)

Where does this fantasy of all the "new Democrats Obama will add in MN" come from? Obama's core supporters are as hardcore Dem as they come.


by ColoradoGuy on Mon Jul 14, 2008 at 01:06:46 PM EST

Re: MN-Sen: Ventura To Announce (none / 0)

His appeal to younger voters seems like the logical answer.  You're right that such voters have been a key demographic the last several cycles, but Obama looks  capable of boosting their turnout.  


by HSTruman on Mon Jul 14, 2008 at 01:15:07 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: MN-Sen: Ventura To Announce Decision On Larry (none / 0)

Those are pretty good numbers by ventura, but unless he gets internet funding, they are his peak too.


by Jerome Armstrong on Mon Jul 14, 2008 at 01:07:17 PM EST

He will get internet funding. (none / 0)

Dean Barkley seems to think he'll have no trouble fundraising, or, for that matter, getting free publicity.

Remember, he won the '98 election with $1 million.


The pebbles have voted and the avalanche has begun.

President-Elect "That One"

by Dracomicron on Mon Jul 14, 2008 at 01:18:53 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: He will get internet funding. (none / 0)

Jesse Ventura saying both the Dems and GOP are screwing the regular guy... that message won't raise hardly any money online.


Rrrinnggg... Time to change the government.
by Carl Nyberg on Mon Jul 14, 2008 at 01:36:44 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Rasmussen has the 2-way closer (none / 0)

I wrote about this a bit earlier.

Anyway, Rasmussen says that, in a 2-way race, it's currently 48% Coleman to 45% Franken, which seems odd, considering that Franken was down by 12% in that SUSA you mentioned... though Franken's new ad might have done him some good, I suppose.

In the three way race, with 39% Coleman, 32% Franken and 24% Ventura according to Rasmussen, I predict the only one going downwards is Coleman, because Ventura will beat on him mercilessly for both political dislike of incumbancy and personal dislike of Coleman (who insulted him at the '98 State Fair).  I think Franken will hold onto his Democrats.


The pebbles have voted and the avalanche has begun.

President-Elect "That One"

by Dracomicron on Mon Jul 14, 2008 at 01:08:14 PM EST

Re: Rasmussen has the 2-way closer (none / 0)

I still think you are way to opptimistic about Ventura taking republicans and not democrats,

but we shall see, I would take either as long as we are done with Coleman.


Dream for tomorrow but fight for it today.
by TruthMatters on Mon Jul 14, 2008 at 01:12:06 PM EST
[ Parent ]

I just want to see the debates. (none / 0)

They're going to be gold.


The pebbles have voted and the avalanche has begun.

President-Elect "That One"

by Dracomicron on Mon Jul 14, 2008 at 01:27:27 PM EST
[ Parent ]

I disagree (none / 0)

If Ventura starts hammering Coleman, that will unite Republicans behind him. Attacking him on the war will boost Coleman's chances even more - simply put, with the pro-war vote united behind Coleman, and the anti-war vote split between Franken and Ventura, Coleman wins. Period.


by Angry White Democrat on Mon Jul 14, 2008 at 02:40:18 PM EST
[ Parent ]

War isn't all that popular... (none / 0)

The war doesn't seem to be the defining element of the election at the moment.  For example, Obama's numbers are lower than the percentage that don't like Iraq.  I really doubt that it will shake out like that.  

Economy is the big issue, and the economy is where Franken and Ventura are different.


The pebbles have voted and the avalanche has begun.

President-Elect "That One"

by Dracomicron on Mon Jul 14, 2008 at 02:55:36 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: MN-Sen: Ventura To Announce Decision On Larry (none / 0)

During an NPR interview a few days back, he went from coy at the start of answering a question to basically confirming his candidacy by the end.

After months of refusing to speak with any news media, Ventura agreed Sunday to an interview with NPR in a parking lot in suburban St. Paul. He still insists he won't announce whether he's running until July 15, the deadline for filing in Minnesota.

But when he hears that his rivals think he's simply trying to promote his latest book, Ventura seems to reveal his true intentions. He angrily says he is running -- primarily because of Coleman's votes for an Iraq war that Ventura vehemently opposes:

"That's the reason I run. Not to sell books. I run because it angers me," Ventura says.

And here's Ventura again sounding as if he has already made up his mind: "All you Minnesotans, take a good hard look at all three of us. And you decide, if you were in a dark alley, which one of the three of us would you want with you," he says.

http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story .php?storyId=92357303


by Jay R on Mon Jul 14, 2008 at 01:10:12 PM EST

Re: MN-Sen: Ventura To Announce Decision On Larry (none / 0)

I heard this. What an idiot. Because yes, when it comes time to decide who I want handling committee hearings, FISA filibusters, economic stimulus packages, and Farm Bill conference meetings, dark alleys are the first thing to come to mind.

What a maroon.


The Wayward Episcopalian
by Transplanted Texan on Mon Jul 14, 2008 at 01:14:17 PM EST
[ Parent ]

We're all in a pretty dark alley right now (none / 0)

In fact, it's so dark that some of us can't see symbolism when it's right in front of their face.


The pebbles have voted and the avalanche has begun.

President-Elect "That One"

by Dracomicron on Mon Jul 14, 2008 at 01:20:06 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: We're all in a pretty dark alley right now (none / 0)

If you listen to the tone of voice he uses when he says that quote, it doesn't sound symbolic at all. He sounds like he's still standing in the wrestling ring, puffing out his chest, taunting his opponent about who's bigger. I heard him say the quote, and the way he said it, it doesn't come across as symbolism at all, but as machismo.


The Wayward Episcopalian
by Transplanted Texan on Mon Jul 14, 2008 at 02:32:09 PM EST
[ Parent ]

I'll take your word for it (none / 0)

I'm a firm believer in layered meaning.  Ventura might say that and outwardly be suggesting that he's physically tougher, but he's also saying that he'll stick up for the little guy.  Which he will, and has been proven to do.


The pebbles have voted and the avalanche has begun.

President-Elect "That One"

by Dracomicron on Mon Jul 14, 2008 at 02:52:50 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: I'll take your word for it (none / 0)

Fair enough. I believe in layered meaning too, that's an obvious statement, so maybe "The Brain" just needs to work on his delivery.


The Wayward Episcopalian
by Transplanted Texan on Tue Jul 15, 2008 at 12:45:10 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: MN-Sen: Ventura To Announce (none / 0)

I would agree, I think he's in. I agree with pretty much everything Ken Rudin said on last week's NPR It's All Politics podcast: Franken was the early favorite, but now Coleman has the edge, and Ventura stands no chance to win, because yeah, his poll numbers were low when he started running for Governor against Coleman and then they rose, but they won't rise now because this time he's not an unknown fresh face. Ventura's deluding himself and going nowhere fast.


The Wayward Episcopalian
by Transplanted Texan on Mon Jul 14, 2008 at 01:12:59 PM EST

big day (none / 0)

That's tough. Light Rail exists in MN because Jesse made it happen. I'd really want to vote for him--especially if he swore to caucus with Dems for Majority leader...


by MNPundit on Mon Jul 14, 2008 at 01:14:42 PM EST

Re: big day (none / 0)

I'll agree with you that Ventura's term as Governor wasn't as bad as some would make it sound, but he would be an absolute disaster on pretty much any economic policy matters at the Federal level.  He would literally vote for every tax cut that came up for a vote, against every tax increase, and would drone on endlessly about how important it is to eliminate stuff like the so-called "death tax."  

Why would you support a guy with those kind of economic views when an actual progressive is in the race?  


by HSTruman on Mon Jul 14, 2008 at 01:17:49 PM EST
[ Parent ]

One reason... (none / 0)

If Franken self destructs (which is possible), then Ventura is our best bet to get rid of Coleman.  That's one reason.


The pebbles have voted and the avalanche has begun.

President-Elect "That One"

by Dracomicron on Mon Jul 14, 2008 at 01:26:09 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: big day (none / 0)

thats another thing about Ventura, I swear he loves to stick it to other politicans just because,

if he were in the senate there is no clue what he would do, and we couldn't even say he WOULD caucus with the dems, he hates them as much as the GOPers

he'd be a real wild card


Dream for tomorrow but fight for it today.
by TruthMatters on Mon Jul 14, 2008 at 01:19:18 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Which is actually his selling point (none / 0)

If the Democrats get 55 Senate seats or so, we can afford, and probably benefit from, Ventura over there calling other folks on their bullshit.

Since he's not beholden to either party's leadership and would probably only serve one term, he'd probably be even more vocal than, say, Feingold, on many issues.

Don't get me wrong, I think Franken would do the same thing for the most part, but Ventura would not be a complete disaster in the Senate, and probably better than he was in the governor's mansion, since the job is more straightforward.


The pebbles have voted and the avalanche has begun.

President-Elect "That One"

by Dracomicron on Mon Jul 14, 2008 at 01:24:04 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Which is actually his selling point (none / 0)

I highly doubt Ventura will give the GOP help on their most odious filibusters.


Rrrinnggg... Time to change the government.
by Carl Nyberg on Mon Jul 14, 2008 at 01:26:20 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Exactly (none / 0)

I predict some highly entertaining Senate transcripts if Ventura gets elected.  He'll tell them where to stuff their filibusters.


The pebbles have voted and the avalanche has begun.

President-Elect "That One"

by Dracomicron on Mon Jul 14, 2008 at 01:29:33 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Which is actually his selling point (none / 0)

But Ventura has to actually get elected for that to happen. I don't think he can get elected; however, he can ensure that Coleman gets re-elected.

Mind you, I think Coleman was likely to be re-elected anyway. Minnesota Dems were idiots to nominate Franken. So I guess there's not much to lose with a Ventura run after all.


by Angry White Democrat on Mon Jul 14, 2008 at 02:42:24 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Uh huh (2.00 / 1)

Nobody thought he'd get elected in '98, either.


The pebbles have voted and the avalanche has begun.

President-Elect "That One"

by Dracomicron on Mon Jul 14, 2008 at 02:45:20 PM EST
[ Parent ]

This is not 1998 (none / 0)

And Senate elections are not gubernatorial elections. Ventura is not going to get a quarter of the Republican vote this time. He'll only hurt Franken's chances (not that they were very good to begin with).


by Angry White Democrat on Mon Jul 14, 2008 at 02:47:31 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Care to cite reasons? (2.00 / 2)

I'd like to see your rationales.  I understand that the electorate is different, but, if anything, it's worse for Republicans now.


The pebbles have voted and the avalanche has begun.

President-Elect "That One"

by Dracomicron on Mon Jul 14, 2008 at 02:59:26 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Care to cite reasons? (none / 0)

Republicans vote much more in lockstep today than they did in 1998. And while this is a bad year for Republicans, they can still win if the anti-Republican vote is split between two candidates. With the Republican base united behind Coleman, and Democrats and independents split between Franken and Ventura, Coleman will win.


by Angry White Democrat on Mon Jul 14, 2008 at 04:03:56 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Er, no (none / 0)

Republicans voting in lockstep is why Republicans basically controlled government from 1994 until 2006.  If anything, Republicans are breaking ranks now because the constituencies are going blue.

Sorry, I just don't see it.


The pebbles have voted and the avalanche has begun.

President-Elect "That One"

by Dracomicron on Mon Jul 14, 2008 at 04:33:00 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: big day (none / 0)

Ventura won't be a solid vote for the Dem Caucus, but there's gonna be times when something really fucked-up is happening and Ventura will stand-up against it in his pro-wrestler kinda way and people concerned about that issue will be glad to have a champion who can bring some media attention to their issue.


Rrrinnggg... Time to change the government.
by Carl Nyberg on Mon Jul 14, 2008 at 01:25:05 PM EST
[ Parent ]

gay rights (none / 0)

Wasn't Ventura ahead of the Democratic Party on gay rights too?


Rrrinnggg... Time to change the government.
by Carl Nyberg on Mon Jul 14, 2008 at 01:21:27 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: gay rights (2.00 / 1)

Ventura is pretty socially liberal with gay rights abortion, and legalizing prositution from memory and wiki says he supports medical marijuana too but I don't remember that one too well.

Also according to wiki he vetoed a bill to require the pledge of allegiance to be said in public schools:

"I believe patriotism comes from the heart. Patriotism is voluntary. It is a feeling of loyalty and allegiance that is the result of knowledge and belief. A patriot shows their patriotism through their actions, by their choice. No law will make a citizen a patriot".

Economically he governed during a time of economic surpluses mostly and that's a very different situation than the late 90s so who knows.

This is the most interested I've been in the Senate race in the state in a long time.


by MNPundit on Mon Jul 14, 2008 at 01:36:25 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: gay rights (none / 0)

He would be terrible on economic matters.  Take a look at the Independence Party platform on taxes.  Absolutely terrible.  


by HSTruman on Mon Jul 14, 2008 at 01:40:28 PM EST
[ Parent ]

So what? That's good. (none / 0)

He would be out-voted by Democrats in the Senate, assuming we win the seats we're supposed to win otherwise.

Ventura being bad on economic issues is actually good for Franken.  Conservatives now get a libertarian-style choice between shift-with-the-wind Coleman and proven-true-blue-anti-taxes Ventura.  Liberals stay with the true liberal, Franken.


The pebbles have voted and the avalanche has begun.

President-Elect "That One"

by Dracomicron on Mon Jul 14, 2008 at 01:45:03 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: So what? That's good. (none / 0)

I'm pointing out that Ventura would be terrible.  You don't seem to dispute that, so I'm not clear what your point is  unless you're positing that Ventura's entry will aid Franken in getting elected.  If that is your point, fair enough, although it's really difficult to peg what his impact will ultimately be in this race.  What is clear is that Ventura would objectively suck on economic issues in the Senate, every bit as much as Coleman has and woudl continue to do so.  


by HSTruman on Mon Jul 14, 2008 at 02:00:19 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Yeah, and I'm okay with that (none / 0)

The point is that Ventura sucks about as much on economic issues as Coleman, but is better on social issues, and will split the economic conservative vote off where people are disillusioned with Borrow-and-Spend Republicans.

If he somehow wins, then he's limited in the economic damage he can do because Democrats will probably have a clear majority, but will caucus with the Democrats on important social issues (like finally fixing FISA).


The pebbles have voted and the avalanche has begun.

President-Elect "That One"

by Dracomicron on Mon Jul 14, 2008 at 02:40:04 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: gay rights (none / 0)

Tell me the story about how the Democrats are going to push-back on the GOP agenda of shifting the cost of gov't services from the federal income tax (rich people) to property taxes (middle class) and sales taxes (poor folk).

Sales tax is 10.25% in Chicago.

So, I'm a bit perplexed that you are invoking economic justice as the rationale for sticking with Dems when there's an independent alternative.

Let me know when the Dems start doing something to make the tax system fairer.


Rrrinnggg... Time to change the government.
by Carl Nyberg on Mon Jul 14, 2008 at 01:48:28 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: gay rights (none / 0)

I seriously have no idea what you're talking about.  WE elected Bill Clinton as president and we got a more progressive tax system.  Al Franken is a hell of a lot more progressive than Bill.  Do I need to spell this out any more?  

Oh, and the reference to Chicago's sales tax is just odd.  What does that have to do with federal tax policies?  


by HSTruman on Mon Jul 14, 2008 at 01:58:29 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: gay rights (none / 0)

Forty years ago we had high income taxes and low property taxes and lower sales taxes.

Now we have lower income taxes and high property taxes and higher sales taxes.

The Republicans are advocating for the wealthy, why aren't the Dems advocating for the middle class?


Rrrinnggg... Time to change the government.
by Carl Nyberg on Mon Jul 14, 2008 at 03:30:31 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: gay rights (none / 0)

They are, at least at the federal level.  Perhaps not to the extent you or I would like, but the contrast is still quite clear.  

As far as State government goes, that's a mixed bag.  But not something that lends itself to a national discussion.  


by HSTruman on Mon Jul 14, 2008 at 04:18:09 PM EST
[ Parent ]

compare Ventura's accomplishments (none / 0)

To other first-term governors.

He got way more done than Rod Blagojevich (Illinois, 2002-06) or George Ryan (Illinois, 1998-2002).


Rrrinnggg... Time to change the government.
by Carl Nyberg on Mon Jul 14, 2008 at 01:22:55 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Well yeah (none / 0)

Dems and Reps blathered for years on light rail.  Ventura just did it.


The pebbles have voted and the avalanche has begun.

President-Elect "That One"

by Dracomicron on Mon Jul 14, 2008 at 01:25:05 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Well yeah (none / 0)

Pawlenty ran on reducing light rail but has ended up expanding it and people want more. As soon as it gets out into the Monticello area whenever I go to the Twin Cities I will not need to drive there ever again.


by MNPundit on Mon Jul 14, 2008 at 01:37:47 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Rage against the Pawlenty (none / 0)

He also broke the bus driver's union, which, had I not been unemployed at the time, would have screwed me royally.  It DID screw a lot of people, but Pawlenty and his rich donors were just thinking, "hey, without those slow busses on the road, traffic is much better!"

Now, with $4 gas and busses being forced to remove seats for more standing room, the Ventura transit system doesn't look so bad.

Me?  I ride my bike now.  Cheaper and healthier. :)


The pebbles have voted and the avalanche has begun.

President-Elect "That One"

by Dracomicron on Mon Jul 14, 2008 at 01:41:45 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Well yeah (none / 0)

Jesse Ventura--"Minnesotans save money on gas today because I pushed light rail when I was governor. I'm not saying I was ahead of my time, but I sure would appreciate the MPR snobs recognizing that I got real things done for real Minnesotans."


Rrrinnggg... Time to change the government.
by Carl Nyberg on Mon Jul 14, 2008 at 01:42:42 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Sometimes the truth hurts (none / 0)

Sometimes even Dems gotta bite the bullet and acknowledge that they were wrong.  That's one of the things that killed Hillary Clinton.


The pebbles have voted and the avalanche has begun.

President-Elect "That One"

by Dracomicron on Mon Jul 14, 2008 at 01:46:30 PM EST
[ Parent ]

My hunchKing Tonight (none / 0)

On the face of the news, it's easy to assume that Franken is hurt because Ventura takes away "change" voters. But I can't help but think that he actually might take away conservative-leaning independents who would otherwise feel like they could not vote for Al.


by RandyMI on Mon Jul 14, 2008 at 01:40:03 PM EST

Exactly (none / 0)

Minnesota is a blue state, so it seems odd that Franken was polling so poorly.  Those that bought into the smear narratives and would never vote for Franken otherwise might now vote for Ventura.


The pebbles have voted and the avalanche has begun.

President-Elect "That One"

by Dracomicron on Mon Jul 14, 2008 at 01:47:40 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Minne...so ...cold Politics! (none / 0)

Ventura is for legalized Prostitution?!?  WOW... thats really going to sale in Minnesota.  And on another note, how can anyone in their write mind vote for Norm?  The late great Paul Wellstone would never vote the same way as him on any positions!


by nzubechukwu on Mon Jul 14, 2008 at 02:23:07 PM EST

Coleman is a chameleon (none / 0)

Coleman will defend or attack any position depending on the polls.  Right now he's amusingly trying to be "an independant voice for Minnesota" when he's barely ever crawled out of Bush's pocket.  He's an expert salesman; in fact he used to be a Democrat before it was unpopular, so he can sell an ideology change pretty easily.

As for the legalized prostitution, as long as nobody makes it a campaign issue, nobody will care.  Jesse sure won't talk about it extensively; there's no reason to (we're not exactly Nevada up here).


The pebbles have voted and the avalanche has begun.

President-Elect "That One"

by Dracomicron on Mon Jul 14, 2008 at 02:44:17 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: MN-Sen: Ventura To Announce Decision On Larry (none / 0)

While I love Al Franken (both as a politician and satirist) and would love to see a Senator Franken-

There are a LOT WORSE things than Senator Ventura-- I actually think Jesse wins this thing.


by Bob Beard on Mon Jul 14, 2008 at 04:21:37 PM EST

Franken's going to win this. (none / 0)

Bet on it.


John McCain, maverick
by lojasmo on Mon Jul 14, 2008 at 09:50:59 PM EST


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