Conservatives Conflicted On Whether Georgia Can Turn Blue

by andrewalker08, Mon Jul 21, 2008 at 11:35:13 AM EST

Chicago Sun-Times columnist Robert Novak writes in his Sunday column that "Republican strategists are privately conceding that the GOP could lose Georgia's 15 presidential electors for the first time since 1992 because of Bob Barr's ballot position as the Libertarian Party presidential candidate."  [Source:  Chicago Sun-Times, "Obama quietly meets with business execs", July 20, 2008]

Novak's column came two days after Atlanta Journal Constitution associate editorial page editor Jim Wooten wrote "that a gap exists between political hype and reality."

But, stripped of the hype, it seems even less likely that Georgia could be in play for Barack Obama or that this will be anything other than the usual strongly contested presidential election. Those who are most excited about the Obama candidacy -- the young -- are historically no-shows at the polls.

 [Source:  Atlanta Journal-Constitution, "Despite hype, Obama won't carry Georgia", July 18, 2008]
Both Novak and Wooten are conservatives.

However, their differing points of view on whether Georgia can become a blue state in '08 are reflected in the most recent McCain vs. Obama general election polls conducted in the Peach State.

Insider Advantage says McCain has a narrow two point lead over Obama [Source:  Southern Political Report, "McCain holds to small lead in Georgia; poll shows Nunn could tilt state", July 3, 2008].  However, polls by Strategic Vision and Rasmussen Reports say McCain leads by double-digits  [Sources:  Strategic Vision, "Georgia Presidential Poll", July 2, 2008; Rasmussen Reports, "Georgia: McCain Still Enjoys Double Digit Lead", June 30, 2008].

It would be safe to assume that Georgia still tilts Republican, but the question is...

...For how long?




Tags: Georgia, Barack Obama, John McCain, Polls (all tags)

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Tips & Recs for Georgia... (2.00 / 2)

...The largest state east of the Missippi River and the Empire State of the South.


by andrewalker08 on Mon Jul 21, 2008 at 11:36:26 AM EST

Re: Conservatives Conflicted (none / 0)

Georgia can turn blue if there is a native Georgian on the ticket or a Southerner at the head of the ticket (i.e. Jimmy Carter won Georgia twice and Bill Clinton once). I agree Sam Nunn could tilt the state blue.

However, I would be surprised if Obama picks Nunn for VP. Without Nunn on the ticket, McCain still has a big advantage in the state, even with increased Black turnout. More likely, Obama will pick Evan Bayh because Bayh can tilt Indiana blue, a state that Democrats have only won once since World War II, and not once since 1964.


Dizzy Zzyzzy
by Zzyzzy on Mon Jul 21, 2008 at 12:26:31 PM EST

Re: Conservatives Conflicted On Whether Georgia Ca (2.00 / 1)

I don't expect Georgia to turn blue anytime soon , at least not this cycle.

Virginia is the only state in Dixie I think could change hands .

Obama would make Georgia , NC states Mccain has to defend and waste resources , thats what the Obama campaign would hope for.    


Educated in a small town Taught to fear Jesus in a small town Used to daydream in that small town Another born romantic that's me.
by lori on Mon Jul 21, 2008 at 12:34:02 PM EST

Re: Conservatives Conflicted (none / 0)

Will you agree that if Bob Barr hits double digits in Georgia that all bets are off?


by Reaper0Bot0 on Mon Jul 21, 2008 at 12:39:49 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Conservatives Conflicted (none / 0)

he won't , 5% at most


Educated in a small town Taught to fear Jesus in a small town Used to daydream in that small town Another born romantic that's me.
by lori on Mon Jul 21, 2008 at 12:43:14 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Conservatives Conflicted (none / 0)

I wasn't asking you what you thought he'd do.  I was asking you about a hypothetical.

Personally?  I think he hangs around seven points in Georgia, and maybe five points in a handful of other states.

Enough to make things interesting in Alaska and help in Montana and the Dakotas.


by Reaper0Bot0 on Mon Jul 21, 2008 at 12:46:36 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Conservatives Conflicted (none / 0)

sure if he cracks double digit then the state would probably turn.


Educated in a small town Taught to fear Jesus in a small town Used to daydream in that small town Another born romantic that's me.
by lori on Mon Jul 21, 2008 at 12:54:26 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Conservatives Conflicted On Whether Georgia Ca (none / 0)

That's why we have elections though.  Sure Georgia will PROBABLY stay red, but if its actually contested who knows what will happen.  Best case, he takes the state... worse case he makes McCain spend time and money in VA, NC, and GA.


http://www.imvotingrepublican.com/ McCain Sucks!
by yitbos96bb on Wed Jul 23, 2008 at 09:30:48 PM EST
[ Parent ]

the five-way debate I want to see (2.00 / 1)

Obama (Dem)
McCain (GOP)
Barr (Libertartian)
McKinney (Green)
Nader (independent)
Rrrinnggg... Time to change the government.
by Carl Nyberg on Mon Jul 21, 2008 at 12:53:30 PM EST

Re: the five-way debate I want to see (2.00 / 1)

So who will Barr impeach and McKinney punch?


by Reaper0Bot0 on Mon Jul 21, 2008 at 12:55:36 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: the five-way debate I want to see (none / 0)


And who will their VP nominees shoot in the face?
by admiralnaismith on Wed Jul 23, 2008 at 04:05:47 PM EST
[ Parent ]


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